The upcoming Thursday Night Football matchup between the Denver Broncos (3-3) and the New Orleans Saints (2-4) on October 17, 2024, promises to be an intriguing contest between two teams trying to turn their seasons around.
Team Form and Analysis
The Denver Broncos have had a mixed season so far, with a 3-3 record and Bo Nix showing steady progress as a rookie quarterback. Nix has passed for 1,082 yards, 5 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions this season. Denver’s defense has been their standout unit, allowing only 16 points per game, making them one of the toughest defenses in the league.
The New Orleans Saints, on the other hand, have struggled with consistency, entering the game on a four-game losing streak. Derek Carr leads the team with 989 passing yards, 8 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions. The Saints’ defense has been shaky, especially against the pass, allowing over 260 passing yards per game.
Betting Odds and Predictions
For this matchup, the betting line slightly favors the Broncos, with Denver at -2.5 on the spread. The moneyline gives Denver a -145 odds to win, while the Saints are listed at +128 as underdogs.
Advanced prediction models and simulations favor the Broncos to win, giving them about a 61% chance of victory. The predicted final score is close, with Denver expected to edge out a 20-17 win.
Over/Under:
The total for the game is set at 37 points. Given that both teams have struggled to score consistently, with Denver averaging 18.7 points per game and New Orleans giving up 27.8 points, betting on the over 37 points could be the better play. The Broncos’ recent games have gone over this mark in two out of their last three contests, while the Saints’ defense has allowed high point totals, suggesting that the over could hit in this game.
My Betting Picks:
- Moneyline: Denver Broncos (-145)
- Over/Under: Over 37 points
Given Denver’s strong defense and New Orleans’ recent struggles, Denver looks like the stronger pick. However, the Saints’ ability to score in spurts keeps the over/under a bit unpredictable, but the over seems like the safer bet here.
